The Prince Uche Secondus led- Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is currently facing a strong challenge that may be threatening its very existence, as it battles to keep its head above water. The crises rocking the main opposition party seems to have been worsened by the gale of defections that has continued to hit it lately. The latest in this unfortunate turn of tidings for the PDP is the recent switch of political party loyalty by Governor Bello Matawella of Zamfara State. He is the second state governor to exit the PDP this year.
Arguably, other PDP governors may be eyeing the APC fold.

The defection of Governor Matawalle brought the number of governors who have left the party lately to three. This came just few days after a ranking Senator, Peter Nwaoboshi, representing Delta North Senatorial zone also jumped ship to the APC.

Before he took up membership of the APC, Matawalle said the PDP was becoming hostile to its members.

The ruling party under the interim leadership of Governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe State has been winning new members into its fold. So much so that even one of the party’s fiercest critics, Femi Fani Kayode, who once referred to the APC as a party of darkness, was willing to grope, in a highly controversial move that was later put in abeyance.

THISDAY gathered that three other senators: Lawali Anka, Zamfara West; Sahabi Ya’u, Zamfara North and Stephen Odey, Cross River North are also set to jump ship this week.

Muhammad Hassan Gusau from Zamfara State on Tuesday tentered his resignation letter from the party which was read by the President of the Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan during plenary.
Many followers of the polity would not say that the PDP was taken by surprise. Long before Matawalle announced his exit from the party, intelligence available to the party had disclosed his surreptitious visits to President Muhammadu Buhari at the Presidential Villa. Currently, the party is keeping its fingers crossed on faithfulness of a couple of its governors, who cannot be fully trusted, as they are known to be in a secret liaison with the APC.

It looks like history is repeating itself
In November 2013, five PDP governors; Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa and Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers left the PDP and took up membership of the APC. The depletion of the PDP was pronounced when former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Aminu Tambuwal and former Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki also turned their back on the PDP.

In 2007, the PDP had 86 seats in the Senate. It went down to 71 in 2011. And hit the bottom in 2015 with 49 seats. In the House of Representatives, there 214 PDP members in 2007. The number dropped to 208 in 2011 and 137 members in 2015.

When the Fourth Republic began in 1999, Nigeria was unarguably in the grip of the PDP. The party was unassailable. Not a few thought the PDP could not be defeated. In 2003, the PDP had 28 governors. That number reduced to 23 in 2011. In 2015, the number came down further to 2015. It was such a traumatic period for PDP that a former President who governed the country on the PDP’s ticket, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, tore his PDP membership card publicly. The PDP that was on a successful flight nose-dived from being the largest party in Africa with an ambitious dream of ruling for 60 years to having a controlling influence only in the South-south region of the country. Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi State’s defection last year reduced of PDP governors in the South-east

It has not been all losses for the PDP. In 2014, former Governor of Ondo State Dr. Olusegun Mimiko left the Labour Party for the PDP in 2014. Former Ali Modu Sheriff also left the APC to the PDP. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Saraki and Tambuwal have all returned to the PDP.

Many had thought that with the current state of the country’s economy and hardship in the country under the leadership of the ruling APC, the opposition PDP will exploit the weakness in the ruling party, harvest from the ruling party to fortify its chances ahead of 2023. But things seem to be moving from bad to worse for the PDP as the party’s fortunes continue to shrink.

Political pundits have been at a loss to explain the reversal of PDP’s fortune. It is definitely for lack of money. The national treasure-crude oil-is domiciled in PDP-controlled states of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers. As things currently stand, these look the most unlikely to allow APC gain a foothold in their states.

The PDP needs to do more to exploit the deficiencies in the APC. For instance, since the Oshiomhole exco was sacked, there has been a centrally controlled messaging centre for the APC. Even the presidential communication team has not been so great. On current form, it is as if the the PDP Communication Team is playing a depleted APC team, that is still managing to be heard. Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan, National Publicity Secretary of the PDP told THISDAY, “I believe that the APC government at the centre has failed. It has not been ae to do any of the things it promised Nigerians. Our communication strategy to harp on the failures of this government. We will not be drawn into abusing individuals. Our communication is passed on with decent language.”

The on-going legal battle between the PDP governorship candidate for Ondo State election in October 2020, Mr. Eyitayo Jegede (SAN) and Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (SAN) has thrown up two pertinent issues that can inflict maximum damage on the APC. Jegede and the PDP has asked the Supreme Court to decide if the APC was right to nominate a candidate for the Ondo governorship election when it had caretaker committee, which is not recognised by the constitution. The apex court has also been tasked to rule on whether Buni could be an executive governor, while at the same time working in an executive capacity as the National Chairman of the APC.

It is true that the PDP still has a lot visibility that can be multiplied in many states that the APC is trying to make inroads. For instance, Imo State was worn by default. It is possible to reverse that loss for the PDP in the next Imo governorship election. APC has never won governorship elections in Cross River and Ebonyi states. The fact the governors of these states have defected to the APC may not be a pointer to the direction the want to go.

The Buni led APC has continued to harvest from the opposition PDP, making the party to look more vulnerable. The Interim National Chairman of the party has been lauded for the seeming deft moves, coming at a time when the party is holding a re-registration and revalidation exercise ordered by his leadership, which took the helm after the ouster of Adams Oshiomhole as party chairman.

One man that has been instrumental to this new push to make in – road into the PDP strongholds is the governor of Kogi state, Yahaya Bello, who is considered the man running the hatchet job for the party.

THISDAY recalled that Governor Yahaya Bello had in more than three occasions last year and early this year said more governors from the PDP had concluded plans to join the ruling party.

“We won’t lose steam midstream,” Governor Yahaya Bello told THISDAY through his Commissioner of Information and Communication, noting that he will “surely continue to play this role to the best of his indisputable capacity.”

He personally supervised the defection of Ben Ayade of Cross River State and predicted the defection of more PDP governors. Recently he was seen in the Abia state government house which many suspect may not be unconnected with his prediction.

The Buni led committee which recently rolled out a time table of congresses seems to have its eyes fixed on expanding the party’s base which is no doubt a key to maintaining its dominance on the nation’s political landscape for the foreseeable future, however since the party’s ascendancy to power its congresses have being characterized by heavy power struggle as factions vie for control of the party structures.

Since it became the ruling party it has undergone turbulent graspings for power, which ultimately engendered the 2018 defection of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Yakubu Dogara, Shehu Sani, Aminu Tambuwal, Rabiu Kwankwaso and their supporters.

APC which held 19 states after the 2015 election, currently has 22 states with tentacles gradually spreading into the initially impenetrable South-east and South-south geo – political zones.

The implications for the PDP are that the party may have no chance in 2023 and this might as well be the end of its era. With less state to contest with the incumbent at the centre, that is in control of state apparatus, it looks like it is going to be a big struggle for the PDP.

This explains why leadership of the party had recently threatened to legal action to reclaim the governorship seat in Zamfara State if the governor, Bello Matawalle, defects to All Progressives Congress (APC).

The party said no law allows Matawalle to cross over to any other party with the governorship mandate statutorily given to the PDP through the ballot box, as already established by the provision of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and the standing judgment of the Supreme Court.

Addressing a press conference recently at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja, the national publicity secretary of PDP, Kola Ologbondiyan, said votes scored in election belong to the political party and that the candidate nominated to contest at an election by his party, acts only as the agent of his party.

He said said the National Working Committee (NWC) has approved the dissolution of the Zamfara State Executive of the party.

“The PDP categorically cautions Bello Matawalle to know that his plans amounts to a decision to vacate office as no law allows him to cross over to any other party with the governorship mandate statutorily given to the PDP through the ballot box, as already established by the provision of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and the standing judgment of the Supreme Court.

“A combined reading of Section 221 of the 1999 Constitution as the pronouncements of the Supreme Court in Faleke v. INEC (2016) is clear in holding that it is the political party that stands for election, that votes scored in election belong to the political party and that the candidate nominated to contest at an election by his party, acts only as the agent of his party.

“The PDP also cautions members of the National Assembly as well as members of the Zamfara State House of Assembly, not to allow themselves to be pushed into losing their seats as the provisions of the constitution is very clear in barring lawmakers from cross carpeting, except in a situation of a division in the political party upon which platform they were elected.

“There is no division in the PDP to warrant to defection of any of our lawmakers.

As it stands the party now controls Sokoto, Benue, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Bauchi, Enugu, Rivers, Oyo, Taraba, Adamawa, Edo and Abia.

Crack in the opposition

As the APC continues its onslaught against the PDP, the opposition seems helpless in fighting back apart from the regular press releases from its national publicity secretary, Kola Olagbodiyan denouncing virtually every move and policy of President Buhari and the ruling party. The PDP has been enmeshed in infighting among its ranks. The National Working Committee (NWC) has been the subject of invectives from some members, including the Rivers state governor, Nyesome Wike. It has been accused of high-handedness and corruption.

At the build-up to last governorship election in Edo State last year, Governor Wike had described members of the NWC of the party as “tax collectors” that can never tell the truth.

The governor said some members of the NWC are blackmailing him, and that was why he pulled out of the Edo state reconciliation committee, allegedly to save his integrity.

He also accused the NWC of actions capable of destroying the party. He said, “An opposition party that ought to be united, to work, to take over the affairs of government, because people are waiting for this opportunity, but the current leadership of NWC is not prepared for that. Rather, what they have done is to constitute some people to sow a seed of discord among governors for their own selfish interest. And that will boomerang; that will consume them,” the governor said.

“If you ask me as a member of PDP, am I ready to support PDP to take over, yes. But, if you ask me currently as it is, is the leadership of the party willing for us to harvest this opportunity for a change, I will say no.

“PDP ought to have harvested from the inefficiency of the APC; from the maladministration of the APC. Ordinarily, that is what the opposition party ought to do.

“The present National Working Committee is not interested or doing anything to take over the realms of government in 2023. When your interest is to remain in power, you are no longer interested to win election,” the governor said.

Similarly, a chieftain of the party, Kassim Afegbua, had accused the Secondus-led PDP NWC of mismanaging the sum of N10 billion which he claimed accrued to the party from the sales of nomination forms for the 2019 election.

Afegbua had also warned that with Secondus in charge of the party, the PDP has no chance in 2023. He said the current national chairman of the party has failed to play the kind of opposition the APC played in 2013-14 that brought it to power.

A charge which Secondus has gone to court to demand a retraction of the story and payment of N1 billion in damages from Afegbua. The situation later culminated in the expulsion of Afegbua from the PDP.

With the PDP still reeling from its internal commotion, it seems a free rein for the APC to poach as much as they can, thereby paving the way for an APC to APC transition in 2023. With some analysts speculating that with the right motivations and leverage, the Kaftan and red cap which Hope Uzodinmma and Peter Nwaoboshi have typified may become the new fashion in the political terrain of the South-east.

The battle within

But this expansion of the ruling party is not without a curse. The APC after about six years at the helm, seems to have become unwieldy with tendencies and factions ceaselessly jostling for predominance. The defections are coming at a time when the new leadership under Buni ordered a re-registration, which observers perceive is intended to reduce certain influences in the party ahead of the 2023 election and possibly truncate the ambition of self acclaimed national leader of the party, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Before the defection of Governor Dave Umahi and the subsequently Ben Ayade of Cross Rivers State, the APC was in the grip of two tendencies, the northern and the South-western tendencies. But with the latest push into other regions the platform is becoming more broad for alignments and realignments, which analysts posit will make the 2023 horse trading within the party a hard nut to crack, especially as the party is yet to decide on its zoning or micro – zoning formula.

As the party gears up for the forthcoming congresses, which will set up a chain of events that will lead up to the eventual presidential convention in 2022, it is only a matter of time before it becomes clear as to the new permutations within the party. Past congresses of the APC have been a chaotic affair and with the struggle for influence ahead of the party’s national convention where executive members would be selected that would go ahead to oversee the emergence of the party’s presidential candidate for the 2023 election, analysts are predicting a deeping of the divide which if not well managed can pave the way for a possible implosion of the party in the lead up to 2023.

Though the recent defections are a big boost to the party’s 2023 fortune, observers posit that going further so much would depend on the leadership dexterity of Mr Buni in dealing with the ensuing crisis from the congresses and ensuring a successful transfer of power to the next Exco of the party.

New entrants pose no threat to APC- Gov. Bello

Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State has played down warning in some quarters calling on the party leadership to be weary of the influx of politicians into the party, just as he expressed confidence that the ruling party will retain power in 2023. He said the party is large enough to accommodate all shade of interests.

Bello who spoke with THISDAY through his Commissioner of Information and Communication, Kingsley Fanwo said, “what is most important at the moment is to realign the political system in such a way that politicians who share the progressive ideology are in our boat.

“That is what the leaders of the party, including Governor Yahaya Bello are doing at the moment. Politics has always been a game of interests. Every political party experiences such political play, so it is not strange. With the influx of powerful forces into the APC, it is becoming increasingly positive that the party will retain power in 2023. APC has been able to flex its undoubted muscle to attract the most relevant governors from the main opposition PDP as well as legislators at all levels.

I can say without any iota of doubt that APC is big enough to accommodate all shades of interests. The party did it in 2015 and 2019 and will surely do it in 2023.”
But Governors Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom, Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta and Nyesom Wike have sworn that the last has not been heard. They PDP may have an ace up its sleeves that it is bidding time to make public.