Nigerians will pay an additional amount of about N1tn (N973.6bn) annually on petrol imports following the Federal Government’s planned introduction of a 15 per cent import tariff on Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), a price analysis conducted

According to a petrol import trend report obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, reviewed by The PUNCH on Tuesday, Nigeria imported an average of 26.75 million litres of petrol daily between January and September 2025.

At a projected import tariff rate of N99.72 per litre, as stated in the presidential approval letter for the 15% tariff, the amount that would be spent as tariff for the 26.75 million litres would be about  N2.67bn daily.

When computed over a full year, this adds up to a staggering N973.64bn, which Nigerians will ultimately bear through higher pump prices once the policy is implemented. This amount, while representing additional revenue for government coffers, will translate to a direct increase in fuel expenses for households, transporters, and businesses nationwide.

President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15 per cent import policy on PMS and diesel has stirred widespread concern across the oil and gas sector, with operators warning it could raise petrol prices, worsen inflation, and increase import costs, even as the government insists the policy aims to boost local refining and generate revenue.

The President’s approval was conveyed in a letter signed by his Private Secretary, Damilotun Aderemi, following a proposal submitted by the Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Zacch Adedeji.

The proposal sought the application of a 15 per cent duty on the cost, insurance, and freight value of imported petrol and diesel to align import costs with domestic market realities.

Adedeji, in his memo to the President, explained that the measure formed part of ongoing fiscal and energy reforms designed to strengthen the naira-based oil economy, ensure price stability, and accelerate the nation’s transition toward local refining capacity in line with the administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda for energy security and economic sustainability.

He also advised the government to ensure transparency by creating a designated Federal Government revenue account managed by the Nigeria Revenue Service, with verification and clearance oversight by the NMDPRA.

“At current CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) levels, this represents an increment of approximately N99.72 per litre, which nudges imported landed costs towards local cost recovery without choking supply or inflating consumer prices beyond sustainable thresholds.

“The core objective of this initiative is to operationalise crude transactions in local currency, strengthen local refining capacity, and ensure a stable, affordable supply of petroleum products across Nigeria,” Adedeji stated.

The FIRS boss noted that the policy is not revenue-driven but corrective, introduced to align import costs with local production realities and prevent duty-free imports from undercutting domestic refineries that are just beginning to recover.

He argued that the new tariff framework would discourage duty-free fuel imports from undercutting domestic producers and foster a fair and competitive downstream environment. He also warned that the current misalignment between locally refined products and import parity pricing has created instability in the market.

“While domestic refining of petrol has begun to increase and diesel sufficiency has been achieved, price instability persists, partly due to the misalignment between local refiners and marketers,” he wrote. The new policy takes effect after a 30-day transition period expected to end on November 21, 2025.

Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to an average of $60 per barrel in 2026, the World Bank has forecast, as global supply continues to outstrip demand. The decline marks a continuation of a multi-year moderation in energy prices.

In its latest report, The Commodity Markets Outlook in Eight Charts, the lender predicted that global commodity prices would fall by roughly seven per cent next year, the fourth consecutive annual decline. Energy prices are set to lead the downward trend, with a projected 10 per cent drop in 2026, following a 12 per cent fall in 2025.

The downward pressure on oil prices reflects subdued global economic activity, persistent trade tensions, and policy uncertainty and is compounded by ample oil supplies. Brent crude has already dropped 14 per cent in the first nine months of 2025 amid oversupply and weak demand, particularly from China. However, occasional price spikes were recorded due to geopolitical events and US sanctions on Russian oil.

“OPEC+ has gradually increased production targets throughout 2025, contributing to an approximate three million barrels per day year-on-year rise in global supply,” the World Bank noted

“With demand expanding by less than one million barrels per day, the oil market is likely to face a sizable surplus in the coming year.”

The report also highlighted that natural gas prices have experienced significant regional variation. US benchmark prices rose 44 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 due to strong liquefied natural gas demand, while European prices remained largely unchanged.

Looking ahead, natural gas is expected to stabilise in the United States in 2027 after a moderate 11 per cent increase in 2026, whereas European prices are projected to decline by 11 per cent next year.

The World Bank’s analysis points to broader risks influencing commodity markets, including geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and shifts in global trade policy. Despite these uncertainties, energy markets are expected to remain oversupplied, keeping Brent crude prices on a downward trajectory.

“The expected moderation in oil prices is consistent with subdued economic growth and the continued expansion of oil production,” the report stated. “While temporary spikes may occur due to geopolitical events, the overall trend points to a further decline in 2026.”

Furthermore, the World Bank stated that metals and minerals prices are expected to remain broadly stable, while precious metals are projected to gain five per cent, following a record investment-driven surge of more than 40 per cent in 2025. Agricultural prices are anticipated to edge lower amid favourable supply conditions, with food prices stabilising and beverage prices declining by seven per cent next year due to expanding output.

The World Bank also warned that fertiliser prices, which have surged 28 per cent over the past year due to strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls, are expected to ease gradually in 2026, though remaining elevated compared with the 2015–2019 average.

“Commodity markets continue to face a complex mix of factors,” the report said. “Sluggish global growth, policy uncertainties, and oversupply in key sectors are weighing on prices, while extreme weather events, easing trade tensions, or changes in input costs could shift market dynamics.”

The National Insurance Commission has unveiled a comprehensive implementation strategy for the National Insurance Industry Reform Agenda 2025.

According to NAICOM on Tuesday, the strategy was launched at a high-level meeting held in Abuja, where the Commissioner for Insurance, Mr Olusegun Omosehin, inaugurated three core working groups to drive the execution of NIIRA’s objectives across the insurance value chain.

The PUNCH reports that NIIRA 2025, signed into law in July, sets out a holistic roadmap for regulatory reform, financial inclusion, digital transformation, and compulsory insurance enforcement.

Speaking during the strategy session, Omosehin reaffirmed NAICOM’s commitment to ensuring that the implementation phase of NIIRA is inclusive, data-driven, and results-oriented.

“This marks the beginning of a coordinated journey toward achieving a stronger, more transparent, and technology-driven insurance industry. The NIIRA 2025 is not just a regulatory document; it is a blueprint for building an insurance sector that protects lives, businesses, and investments across Nigeria,” Omosehin stated.

He added that the new working groups would serve as engines of reform, ensuring that critical policy objectives are translated into measurable outcomes.

The Working Groups comprise the Compulsory Insurance Working Group, chaired by Shola Tinubu, with the mandate to strengthen the enforcement and adoption of all compulsory insurance schemes across the country, including motor (third party), builders liability, group life, professional indemnity, and public buildings insurance.

The Digitisation Working Group is led by Adetola Adegbayi and has the mandate to modernise the insurance regulatory ecosystem through innovative digital tools and platforms, and the third group is the Financial Inclusion Working Group, chaired by Dr Yeside Oyetayo. This group has the mandate of deepening insurance penetration, particularly among underserved and low-income populations.

The Commissioner commended stakeholders for their dedication and expressed confidence that the new implementation structure would fast-track industry-wide reforms. “This strategy represents a shared responsibility to deliver results that will redefine the perception and impact of insurance in Nigeria. We must all see ourselves as partners in national development.”