Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to an average of $60 per barrel in 2026, the World Bank has forecast, as global supply continues to outstrip demand. The decline marks a continuation of a multi-year moderation in energy prices.

In its latest report, The Commodity Markets Outlook in Eight Charts, the lender predicted that global commodity prices would fall by roughly seven per cent next year, the fourth consecutive annual decline. Energy prices are set to lead the downward trend, with a projected 10 per cent drop in 2026, following a 12 per cent fall in 2025.

The downward pressure on oil prices reflects subdued global economic activity, persistent trade tensions, and policy uncertainty and is compounded by ample oil supplies. Brent crude has already dropped 14 per cent in the first nine months of 2025 amid oversupply and weak demand, particularly from China. However, occasional price spikes were recorded due to geopolitical events and US sanctions on Russian oil.

“OPEC+ has gradually increased production targets throughout 2025, contributing to an approximate three million barrels per day year-on-year rise in global supply,” the World Bank noted

“With demand expanding by less than one million barrels per day, the oil market is likely to face a sizable surplus in the coming year.”

The report also highlighted that natural gas prices have experienced significant regional variation. US benchmark prices rose 44 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 due to strong liquefied natural gas demand, while European prices remained largely unchanged.

Looking ahead, natural gas is expected to stabilise in the United States in 2027 after a moderate 11 per cent increase in 2026, whereas European prices are projected to decline by 11 per cent next year.

The World Bank’s analysis points to broader risks influencing commodity markets, including geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and shifts in global trade policy. Despite these uncertainties, energy markets are expected to remain oversupplied, keeping Brent crude prices on a downward trajectory.

“The expected moderation in oil prices is consistent with subdued economic growth and the continued expansion of oil production,” the report stated. “While temporary spikes may occur due to geopolitical events, the overall trend points to a further decline in 2026.”

Furthermore, the World Bank stated that metals and minerals prices are expected to remain broadly stable, while precious metals are projected to gain five per cent, following a record investment-driven surge of more than 40 per cent in 2025. Agricultural prices are anticipated to edge lower amid favourable supply conditions, with food prices stabilising and beverage prices declining by seven per cent next year due to expanding output.

The World Bank also warned that fertiliser prices, which have surged 28 per cent over the past year due to strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls, are expected to ease gradually in 2026, though remaining elevated compared with the 2015–2019 average.

“Commodity markets continue to face a complex mix of factors,” the report said. “Sluggish global growth, policy uncertainties, and oversupply in key sectors are weighing on prices, while extreme weather events, easing trade tensions, or changes in input costs could shift market dynamics.”

The National Insurance Commission has unveiled a comprehensive implementation strategy for the National Insurance Industry Reform Agenda 2025.

According to NAICOM on Tuesday, the strategy was launched at a high-level meeting held in Abuja, where the Commissioner for Insurance, Mr Olusegun Omosehin, inaugurated three core working groups to drive the execution of NIIRA’s objectives across the insurance value chain.

The PUNCH reports that NIIRA 2025, signed into law in July, sets out a holistic roadmap for regulatory reform, financial inclusion, digital transformation, and compulsory insurance enforcement.

Speaking during the strategy session, Omosehin reaffirmed NAICOM’s commitment to ensuring that the implementation phase of NIIRA is inclusive, data-driven, and results-oriented.

“This marks the beginning of a coordinated journey toward achieving a stronger, more transparent, and technology-driven insurance industry. The NIIRA 2025 is not just a regulatory document; it is a blueprint for building an insurance sector that protects lives, businesses, and investments across Nigeria,” Omosehin stated.

He added that the new working groups would serve as engines of reform, ensuring that critical policy objectives are translated into measurable outcomes.

The Working Groups comprise the Compulsory Insurance Working Group, chaired by Shola Tinubu, with the mandate to strengthen the enforcement and adoption of all compulsory insurance schemes across the country, including motor (third party), builders liability, group life, professional indemnity, and public buildings insurance.

The Digitisation Working Group is led by Adetola Adegbayi and has the mandate to modernise the insurance regulatory ecosystem through innovative digital tools and platforms, and the third group is the Financial Inclusion Working Group, chaired by Dr Yeside Oyetayo. This group has the mandate of deepening insurance penetration, particularly among underserved and low-income populations.

The Commissioner commended stakeholders for their dedication and expressed confidence that the new implementation structure would fast-track industry-wide reforms. “This strategy represents a shared responsibility to deliver results that will redefine the perception and impact of insurance in Nigeria. We must all see ourselves as partners in national development.”

Zenith Bank Plc has reported a 16 per cent rise in its gross earnings for the first nine months of 2025 to N3.37tn compared to N2.9tn recorded in Q3 2024.

This was disclosed in its unaudited financial results for the first three quarters ended 30 September 2025, filed with the Nigerian Exchange Limited.

Zenith Bank is one of the top banks in Nigeria, with a presence in multiple countries.

According to the financial results presented to the NGX, growth in gross earnings was driven by interest income, which rose 41 per cent year-on-year to N2.7tn. The lender said that the growth in interest income was supported by a high-yield rate environment and an expansion in the Bank’s investment portfolio.

In the same period, interest expense rose by 22 per cent to N814bn on the back of a tightening monetary cycle and a growth in the Bank’s funding base; however, the bank was able to achieve a healthy Net Interest Margin of 12 per cent as against 10 per cent in September 2024. Non-interest income declined by 38 per cent to N535bn, underpinned by a 60 per cent decline in trading gains.

Zenith Bank’s profit before tax marginally declined to N917bn as against N1.00tn reported in September 2024. Profit after tax also declined by eight per cent to N764bn, and Earnings Per Share came in at N18.60 as against N26.34 in September 2024, as the Bank took bold measures to improve the quality of its loan portfolio.

The Bank’s total assets grew by four per cent from N30tn in December 2024 to N31tn as at September 2025, supported by customer deposits, which rose by eight per cent to N23.7tn within the same period. Gross loans declined by nine per cent to N10tn as at September 2025, while Non-Performing Loan ratio improved to three per cent due to the write-off of non-performing loans.

Commenting on the results, the Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Dr Adaora Umeoji, said, “The Bank’s robust performance is an attestation to the resilience of the Zenith brand, result-driven strategy, and the adaptability of our people in an evolving operating environment. We have fortified our capital base, reset our asset quality, and are well-positioned for sustainable and profitable growth”.

On the outlook for the last quarter of the year, Umeoji said, “This result confirms the resilience of both our business model and our people. We’re on a solid growth path that we expect to maintain through the remainder of the year. Our focus on innovation, digital transformation, and developing solutions that address our clients’ changing needs positions us to capitalise on emerging opportunities whilst maintaining our disciplined approach to growth”.

She assured shareholders that the robust performance, combined with improved asset quality and the Bank’s strong capital base, positions Zenith Bank to deliver exceptional returns with expectations of sustained value creation.

“We’re well placed to sustain this momentum whilst maintaining responsible leadership in the Nigerian banking industry and delivering exceptional value to all our stakeholders,” she asserted.

Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited has confirmed that it has met the Central Bank of Nigeria’s N200bn minimum capital requirement for national commercial banks, ahead of the deadline in 2026.

This was disclosed in a statement made available to The PUNCH on Monday.

In March 2024, CBN raised the operating minimum capital requirements for banks operating in the country. Banks with an international licence faced N500bn, and national commercial banks were expected to raise N200bn. The MCR for regional banks and merchant banks were pegged at N50bn each. In the non-interest space, national non-interest players were expected to meet a new N20bn capital threshold, while the regional players would raise N10bn.

The stakeholders were given until March 2026 to meet the new deadlines.

As of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, disclosed that 14 banks have met the new MCR.

According to Standard Chartered, meeting the new MCR highlights the bank’s formidable financial foundation and reaffirms its focus on deepening its presence in Nigeria, one of its most pivotal African markets, through committed investment, robust capital base, strong and sustainable balance sheet, and value-enhancing financing to support clients’ leading growth in key sectors that propel national productivity.

Dalu Ajene, Chief Executive Officer of Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited, stated, “Delivering on the CBN’s recapitalisation directive ahead of schedule underscores our unwavering confidence in the resilience and potential of the Nigerian economy. This achievement reaffirms Standard Chartered’s enduring partnership with Nigeria and our steadfast commitment to foster sustainable growth, support clients, and play a pivotal role in Nigeria’s financial and economic transformation”.

Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Dayo Omolokun, added, “The recapitalisation of Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited ahead of the March 2026 deadline reinforces the group’s commitment to Nigeria, as an important and strategic market on the African continent. Since returning to Nigeria to establish a wholly owned subsidiary in 1999, the Bank has supported clients and customers with structured financial solutions running into billions of Dollars, combining differentiated cross-border capabilities with leading wealth management expertise”.

The bank added that new capital investment will enable it to do more, especially towards the achievement of a $1tn economy by 2031 as envisioned by President Bola Tinubu.

Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited has been operating in Nigeria for about 26 years of dedicated service in Nigeria, blending global expertise with local insights to provide innovative banking solutions that empower individuals, businesses, and communities to prosper.

October data pointed to improved growth momentum in the Nigerian private sector, with both output and new orders increasing at sharper rates than in September. In turn, companies took on extra staff and expanded their purchasing activity. The pace of input cost inflation remained subdued relative to the picture over recent years, while output prices increased at the second-slowest pace for five-and a-half years. The headline figure derived from the survey is the Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®). Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions on the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration.

Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank commented: “Business activity started the last quarter of 2025 on a strong note, with the headline PMI printing higher at 54.0 points in October compared to 53.4 points in September. This was on account of higher output and new orders growth. Notably, continued softening of price pressures and launch of new products by companies helped to drive higher new orders (56.3 points vs September: 55.4 points) and this in turn, supported output (57.7 points vs September: 56.1 points) growth to its highest level since April. Output increased across all the four sectors covered by the survey, led by manufacturing. Elsewhere, input costs increased in October but were still much weaker than levels seen in 2023 and 2024. However, the opposite was true for output prices, which rose at the second slowest pace in five-and-a-half years, just Headline inflation softened to 18.02% y/y in September, and we expect price moderation towards 15.84% – 16.22% y/y in October and 14.25% – 14.62% y/y in November.

This is because we see food prices moderating further in the coming months in line with the ongoing main harvest season which is expected to ensure food prices remain at their seasonal low level until December, when gradual depletion of household stocks will commence. Simultaneously, non-food inflation should be pressured in October amid higher fuel prices relative to September, understandably due to supply constraints and production glitches at the Dangote refinery which contributes 30.0% – 40.0% of domestic petrol supplies. Nonetheless, the lingering local currency stability and appreciation should help provide some succour to non-food inflation in the near term. Lower inflation, stabilizing exchange rate, and anticipation of further rate cuts ahead should support improvement in real sector activity over the medium term. Accordingly, we see the Nigerian economy growing by 4.0% in 2025. Both Manufacturing and Services are likely to see higher growth in 2025 compared to 2024 levels, based on the results from the PMI surveys so far this year.”

The headline PMI rose to 54.0 in October from 53.4 in September, signalling a solid monthly improvement in the health of the private sector and one that was more pronounced than in the previous survey period. Business conditions have now strengthened in 11 consecutive months. Output growth hit a six-month high in October, with panellists highlighting the positive impact of rising new orders and the introduction of new products. Business activity increased across all four broad sectors, with growth fastest in manufacturing. The launch of new products also helped to drive up customer numbers in October, thereby feeding through to rising new orders.

A recent softening of inflationary pressures also reportedly helped to boost demand. Although companies continued to increase their selling prices at a marked pace in response to higher input costs, the latest rise in charges was the second-slowest for five-and-a half years, quicker only than that seen in August. The rate of input cost inflation ticked higher, however, amid faster increases in both purchase prices and staff costs. That said, the increase in input prices was still muted compared to those seen in 2023 and 2024. Rising new orders encouraged firms to take on extra staff in October, the fifth month running in which this has been the case. The rate of job creation was only modest, however, and softer than seen in September.

Higher employment helped firms to keep on top of workloads, but power outages and payment delays from clients led to build-ups in backlogs elsewhere. On balance, outstanding business was broadly unchanged in October. Both purchasing activity and stocks of inputs increased as companies responded to higher new orders and the prospect of further expansions in the months ahead. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery times continued to shorten. Although strategies around marketing and exporting supported confidence in the year-ahead outlook for business activity, sentiment dropped for the fourth month running in October and was the lowest since May. Around 46% of respondents predicted a rise in output over the next 12 months.

Oil major, Shell Plc will invest about $1 billion on new oil blocks in Angola as the southern African nation seeks to boost production that’s dwindled over the years.

Shell and Angola’s National Agency for Oil, Gas and Biofuels signed an exclusive agreement for exploration rights covering offshore Blocks 19, 34 and 35, along with 14 additional blocks in ultra-deepwater areas.

The funds will be used for seismic surveys and drilling, ANPG’s Paulino Jeronimo told reporters at an event attended by the oil giant in Luanda, the capital on Monday.

Angola’s priority remains keeping crude production above one million barrels a day through marginal field development and incremental output projects, he said.

Africa’s third largest oil producer has been courting investment to stave off a steep decline in output, a key source of government revenue. In July, it briefly fell below one million barrels a day for the first time since Angola quit OPEC two years ago, before recovering.

ANPG also signed another deal with Shell, alongside Chevron Corp. and Sonangol EP, in September for Block 33 in the in the Lower Congo basin, off the coast of Angola, marking its return to the nation after a two-decade absence.

The one-million-barrel target is based on annual averages and will remain in place for the next several years, Minerals and Petroleum Minister Diamantino Azevedo said at Monday’s event.

The naira recorded its highest appreciation this year at the close of October when it settled at 1,421.73/$ at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria has revealed.

The naira traded below the 1,500/$ threshold throughout October at the official market, indicating stability, and appreciated by 3.63 per cent from 1,475.34/$ as of 30 September 2025. In October, the naira traded at its weakest rate of 1,475.35/$ on 17 October 2025.

At the parallel market, the story was not too different, as the domestic currency closed at N1,450.00/$ on Friday, according to CardinalStone.

Providing a weekly review of the FX market, researchers at AIICO Capital attributed the performance of the naira to the activities of foreign portfolio investors.

“The Nigerian naira appreciated during the week, buoyed by improved foreign currency supply from foreign portfolio investors who sold USD positions, boosting market liquidity and easing demand pressures. The steady inflow of foreign funds strengthened supply conditions across key benchmarks, resulting in a consistent appreciation of the naira as USD availability outpaced demand. Overall, the naira gained 2.48 per cent week-on-week to close at N1,421.73/$,” said AIICO Capital.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s external reserves extended their rally, increasing to $43.17bn as of 30 October 2025, up from $42.35bn recorded a month earlier on 30 September 2025, CBN data indicated.

The data show a monthly gain of $819m, representing a 1.93 per cent growth in reserves within one month. This improvement suggests a steady build-up in foreign assets during the period under review, indicating slightly stronger external buffers compared to the previous month.

Analysts have projected that the currency would maintain an even keel in the coming week and in the near future.

In its macro report, CSL Research identified increased production from Dangote refinery as helping to stabilise the naira despite headwinds.

The macro note said, “A key driver behind this performance has been the resilience of the external sector, even amid relatively weak global oil prices. According to recent data, the current account balance recorded a surplus of about $5.3bn in Q2 2025, up from $2.9bn in Q1 2025.

“We attribute this improvement to a sharp contraction in imports and a modest increase in export receipts. The narrowing of the import bill has helped reduce foreign exchange demand pressures, creating room for the naira to strengthen. We believe that one of the major contributors to this trend is the increase in domestic refined petroleum output, primarily driven by the Dangote refinery.”

Another factor raised was the positioning of global institutional investors with long, unhedged naira-denominated exposures.

“This shift has been driven by growing confidence in the government’s reform agenda and recent positive sovereign credit rating actions. In retrospect, Nigeria has emerged as one of the most attractive destinations for carry trade investors over the past year, as the combination of elevated interest rates and improving exchange rate stability has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns relative to peers in other emerging markets. We estimate that offshore investors who subscribed to one-year OMO bills in late 2024, when stop rates averaged around 24 per cent and the exchange rate was roughly N1,650/$, would be realising a net return of about 36 per cent in US dollar terms at current exchange rates.

“This profitable carry trade dynamic has reinforced foreign investor interest in Nigerian assets and contributed to stability in the foreign exchange market. Lastly, we add that sustained interventions by the CBN amid increased offshore inflows and stronger trade balances have also helped support the local currency’s performance,” said CSL Research.