Although the Independent National Electoral commission (INEC), has yet to declare open, campaigns for the 2023 elections, and had even warned early risers to be circumspect, else, it would weigh in the big stick, truth is that campaigns have actually begun and in full blaze.

And this is across the board. From the political parties to individual intending office seekers, not to talk of the infinite support groups for the different camps and characters currently dotting the turf, campaigns for the 2023 general election had since left station.

From all indications, it may not be easy tracking all the subtle campaign trains, however, catching up with as many as possible – especially the yard stompers – is equally not a difficult task.

This is why THISDAY is starting a weekly update that could help keep tabs with the “unapproved campaigns”, the intrigues, behind the scene occurrences, the machinations, political parties’ undercurrents and of course, getting requisite interpretations for some of the unfurling events.

Indeed, the last few weeks up until yesterday, have been quite entertaining in terms of political engagements, with respect to the 2023 polls. While some of the prospective presidential candidates had openly declared their intentions, others have continued with their “under-the-table” activities, just so they keep pace with developments.

But, so far, even though INEC seems unhappy with this ‘deliberate disobedience’ to simple legal instructions and unfortunately, appears helpless; isn’t it trite to infer that the battle for 2023 has begun in earnest, as everyone has started to show their hands one after the other?

Battle of the Political Parties

The two main political parties – All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – are currently in the trenches, and two critical issues are on the card in the journey to 2023. First is the Electoral Act amendment bill, which has suffered undeserving rejections and recommittals by both the National Assembly and the presidency.

Indeed, the two parties differ on some of the provisions in the amendments. Therefore, there’s an ongoing battle with respect to that. But, there’s suddenly a loud quiet on the matter as the presidency is not saying anything yet on the new amendment since forwarded to President Muhammadu Buhari.

The second issue is the divergent calls for zoning by both parties. While the ruling APC wants the presidency to go to the south and understandably so, the PDP has elected to leave its options open, at least, it is not expressly moving it to the north.

Nevertheless, the real battle of the political parties is yet to fully commence, but they have remained major vehicles for the current campaign drive by groups and individuals for various offices.

Tinubu: Waltzing Through Rough Patches

A former Lagos State Governor and one of the national leaders of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, was one of the first presidential hopefuls to openly announce his aspiration, when he first communicated his intention to President Buhari and later met with some prominent Nigerians, including former Military President, Ibrahim Babangida.

He took a break afterwards and since he returned from London, the United Kingdom, last week, where he was reported to have furthered his consultations, Tinubu has revved up his campaign machine and despite misgivings in some quarters, he has refused to buckle, taking it a step after the other.

Tinubu’s campaign train ran into serious turbulence last week, when he visited some traditional rulers in Ogun State and the concern about his health became the subject of debate. But the renowned political strategist and dogged fighter, brushed it all aside, took them in his stride and continued with his nationwide consultations, which saw him visiting Sokoto State on Monday. Tinubu is doing well so far and his campaign is fast gaining stability.

Osinbajo: A Quiet But Smart Campaign

Perhaps, no other presidential hopeful has the kind of staggering support groups that the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, boasts. In addition, there’s hardly any intending contender for the nation’s number one seat, who has dished out the kind of exquisite online media campaign that the VP has leveraged over time.

Suffice it to say, also, that Osinbajo has yet to openly mention to anyone that he would contest for the president of the nation, but he was alleged to have confided in a few close allies, that his decision to give the presidency a shot was no longer subject to debate.

Aside speculations that he had secured the go-ahead of his spiritual father, the General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), Pastor E. A Adeboye, Osinbajo has continued to prosecute quiet but smart campaigns, riding high and tough on the social media as well as identifying with youth population.

He seems to understand the language of the youth and is in tune with trends in many considerations. He gave a dose of this recently at Tony Elumelu’s event, where he treated the audience to a hip-hop song, which attracted huge applause. And, after serving eight years with President Muhammadu Buhari, Osinbajo is naturally a force to reckon with and is coming up good. All eyes on him as he is expected to declare his intention after the APC national convention.

Atiku’s Agenda Setting Narrative

A former Vice President and PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2019 general election, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is back on the turf. He has also started to talk to people and has confided in many that he would run. But Atiku is not unaware of one major challenge that his aspiration might face and that is the zoning debacle.

This, perhaps, explains why he has continued to justify the need for his party, the PDP to jettison zoning the presidential ticket and leave it open. Atiku’s presidential bid is only feasible if the ticket either comes directly to the north is left open for the fittest to grab.

Expectedly, this has earned him opprobrium from the southern part of the country, where stakeholders have been advocating that the ticket should come to their part of the country. Those against Atiku think his position is hypocritical, when compared to the stand he took many years ago against former president Goodluck Jonathan. But none of these is about to change his position. His ambition, from the reading of the equation, is all that matters for now.

Anyim: Putting Southeast on His Dashboard

A former Senate President and erstwhile Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Anyim Pius Anyim, has since undertaken an audacious campaign move. Having hailed from the Southeast, where no one appears to be considering for the presidency, Anyim, has promised to go ahead with his ambition regardless.

So far, the Ebonyi State-born politician, has been going round to speak about his aspiration, consulting on the possibility of his project and personally driving his campaign. He has refused to be intimidated by the array of candidates from other zones, confident that the Southeast has a chance so long it is able to get requisite support from other parts of the country.

Unveiling the ‘Meffy 2023’ Movement

Like a cometh, there appears to be a new heavyweight into the presidential race and it is the Central Bank Governor (CBN), Godwin Emefiele. Suddenly, the talk about Emefiele’s chances, is making waves across the political spectrum. Still, Emefiele has yet to confirm that he is running. The best he has said was that his fate was in God’s hands.

But, currently, he is the in-thing with his friends and allies taking the bull by the horn. Many of them believe he has what it takes to govern the country and would do well being a banker. Tagged “Meffy 2023”, the Emefiele movement is fast dominating the space and providing the topic for discussions as far as 2023 is concerned.

A Southerner from Delta State, the Emefiele movement has also caused some shock in the body polity, with opinions already divided on the viability or otherwise of the project. His team is unrelenting and expectations, coupled with optimism, are high that the campaign would soon engage higher realm of activities in no distant time.

Saraki: Consulting, Setting Up Teams, Designing Blueprint

If anyone had contemplated whether or not former Senate President Bukola Saraki would throw his act in the ring in 2023, he laid that debate to rest recently, when he hinted on his Twitter and Facebook pages that the aspiration was already a deal but would need everyone on board to make it a reality.

In addition, Saraki has started setting up different teams that would help to actualise this dream, including putting a blueprint together. Activities in his campaign have begun to gain traction, with his consultative groups, going round to feel the pulse of the people and also seeking the buy-in of other stakeholders.

Sources in Saraki’s camp have hinted that campaign activities would pick up significantly from next week, and they were confident they would effectively engage everyone, both within and outside the party.

Amaechi and the Message from Daura

The Minister of Transport, Rotimi Amaechi, is one of those suspected to be nursing a presidential bid, but has yet to openly talk about it. Yes, an appointee of the federal government, unveiling his aspiration now might be counterproductive hence his silence.

But his recent turbaning as the Dan Amanar of Daura, meaning the trusted son of Daura, has hinted at many possibilities, including running for president of the country. Amaechi is from South-south and it appears fingers are pointed in that part of the country. As a prominent South-south leader, Amaechi is likely to give the presidency a shot, and soon.

Even more instructive is the momentum that the turbaning gathered, coupled with the timing. What more, it was a title given by the Emir of Daura, the traditional ruler of the president’s home state. There’s truly a lot to be read into that and the totality of these points to one thing: a subliminal message from Daura. The game is on!

PDP: Unrelenting Southerners Vs Adamant Northerners

As two powerful and determining political blocs, the southern and northern governors, have a lot to even out as far as the 2023 elections are concerned, because their preferences contrast. The southern governors want a southern president in 2023, while their northern counterparts disagree.

Now, this also differs from party to party. In the APC, the southern and northern governors appear to be on the same page. But the real problem is in the south itself as the battle over which zone in the south should have it has continued to rage. However, as simple as it sounds, this might be the undoing in the party.

In the PDP, unfortunately, the southern and northern governors are not pretentious about where they each stand. The south wants south and the north wants north. But in a kind of compromise, the north would rather it was thrown open and let the best emerge. That debate is not ending anytime soon and the situations remain the same with the governors.